MLB draft day arrives with top picks still in focus
First Round Projections Emerge
The MLB Draft Day has arrived, bringing with it a focus on the initial selections and potential strategies of various teams. Final predictions for the first round indicate several key players are being closely watched, with teams considering both talent and financial implications for their overall draft classes.
The Chicago White Sox hold the first overall pick, and reports suggest their choice has narrowed to either Roch Cholowsky, a shortstop from UCLA, or Grady Emerson, a shortstop from Fort Worth Christian (TX). The decision may hinge on bonus money, with Cholowsky potentially offering a more favorable financial arrangement that could benefit the White Sox’s broader draft strategy. Chicago’s recent acquisition of an extra pick, the 34th overall from the Pittsburgh Pirates, could make such savings more relevant.
If Cholowsky is selected first, Grady Emerson is projected to go second to the Tampa Bay Rays. Conversely, if Cholowsky is not the first pick, the Rays are believed to prefer Vahn Lackey, a catcher from Georgia Tech, with Cholowsky then potentially going third to the Minnesota Twins. However, there are indications that Cholowsky’s camp might prefer not to sign with Minnesota, suggesting a possible scenario where he could secure a larger bonus at pick one than at pick three, while still offering a discount to the White Sox.
The Twins are expected to select whichever of the top three players remains available. Lackey is considered a top player, holding the same 55 FV grade as Emerson and Cholowsky. There was also late discussion about Drew Burress, an outfielder from Georgia Tech, as a potential pick for Minnesota at a discount, though his more realistic landing spots are rumored to be later in the top 10.
Following these initial picks, the San Francisco Giants are projected to select Jackson Flora, a right-handed pitcher from UC Santa Barbara, at pick number four. The Pittsburgh Pirates, at pick five, are expected to choose Eric Booth Jr., an outfielder from Oak Grove HS (MS). The Pirates’ trade of the 34th pick is thought to be partly related to their desire to improve their big-league team and their approach to leveraging their bonus pool.
Mid-First Round Outlook
The middle of the first round presents further strategic considerations for teams. The Kansas City Royals, picking sixth, might consider Booth or Flora if they fall, but they are also exploring other options, such as Jared Grindlinger, a two-way player from Huntington Beach HS (CA). Grindlinger’s other potential destinations are in the 10-13 range, where bonus slots are around $6 million. A deal with Grindlinger in that range could allow the Royals to target a high-value player with their second pick, 30th overall.
The Baltimore Orioles, at pick seven, are projected to take Drew Burress. This pick aligns with Baltimore’s historical tendency to select high-performing college hitters early in the draft. The Athletics are expected to pick Ryder Helfrick, a catcher from Arkansas, at number eight, following strong feedback that he was ranked too low in earlier projections.
The ninth pick, held by the Atlanta Braves, is seen as a pivotal moment that could trigger a chain reaction for teams immediately behind them. There is a scenario where the Braves might pursue an under-slot deal to enhance their options at pick 26. Chris Hacopian, a second baseman from Texas A&M, is speculatively placed here, partly due to injury concerns that might push him later in the college hitter cluster.
The Colorado Rockies are projected to select Derek Curiel, a center fielder from LSU, at pick 10. The Washington Nationals are expected to target college bats, with Tyler Bell, a shortstop from Kentucky, offering good value at pick 11. The Los Angeles Angels, at pick 12, are anticipated to select a college player, with Ace Reese, a third baseman from Mississippi State, being a potential choice.
Later First Round Projections
As the first round progresses, the focus shifts to how earlier selections influence subsequent choices. The St. Louis Cardinals, picking 13th, might consider a college pitcher if contact-oriented college hitters are no longer available. If Zion Rose, an outfielder from Louisville, is selected before their pick, a college pitcher becomes a more likely option.
The Miami Marlins are projected to select Jacob Lombard, a shortstop from Gulliver Prep (FL). Lombard is noted to be falling in the draft, making him a potential target for the Marlins. The draft continues throughout the day, with teams making strategic decisions based on player availability and financial considerations.
The draft day activities include coverage from the Mariners draft room, with their pick at 24 expected around noon PT. Scouting Director Scott Hunter is anticipated to provide quotes on their selection. The draft will continue with second through fourth-round picks before Saturday’s action concludes.
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Source: blogs.fangraphs.com
