MLB home run predictions for Saturday, July 11
Major League Baseball action on Saturday, July 11, presents several opportunities for significant offensive plays, with a focus on home run props. Several players are highlighted for their recent power hitting and favorable matchups against opposing pitchers and bullpens.
Key Home Run Prospects
James Wood of the Washington Nationals is noted for his recent performance, having hit four home runs in his last six games. Over that period, he has maintained a .722 ISO and a hard-hit rate of 62.9%, with a barrel rate approaching 20%. Wood is scheduled to face New York Yankees pitcher Cam Schlittler, who has allowed 3.00 HR/9 in his last two outings. The Yankees bullpen has also given up 1.63 HR/9 over their last 27 2/3 innings, potentially creating more chances for Wood.
Another player in strong form is Cleveland Guardians outfielder Chase DeLauter. He has homered in consecutive games and has three home runs in his last six contests. DeLauter’s ISO during this span is .417, coupled with a hard-hit rate of 68.4%. He will be up against Miami Marlins starter Eury Pérez, who has given up a home run in six of his last eight starts. Despite Pérez’s overall pitching, he has shown a tendency to make mistakes that opponents have capitalized on.
Ben Rice, also from the New York Yankees, has been a standout this season, hitting five home runs in his last seven games. His ISO is .556 and his barrel rate is 19% over that period. Rice’s matchup against Miles Mikolas is considered favorable, as Mikolas has surrendered 2.77 HR/9 in his previous two appearances. Opponents have also registered a 40.8% hard-hit rate against Mikolas in the last two weeks. The Nationals bullpen has allowed 1.86 HR/9 over the last seven days, which could further benefit Rice.
Additional Players to Watch
Other players are also drawing attention for their potential to hit home runs. Pete Alonso, playing for the New York Mets, has hit 20 home runs this season, with 17 of those coming against right-handed pitchers. His expected wOBA is .377 and his hard-hit rate is 44.4%. Alonso is set to face Kansas City Royals right-hander Luinder Avila, who has shown reverse splits, with right-handed hitters posting a 43.1% fly-ball rate and a .395 wOBA against him in a limited sample. The Royals bullpen has also allowed the third-most home runs per nine innings, at 1.38.
Kurtz is another player highlighted, having hit 20 home runs with a 48.5% hard-hit rate and a .383 expected wOBA. He has been particularly effective against right-handed pitchers, with a .414 wOBA and a 52.3% hard-hit rate in that split. Kurtz will face Chicago White Sox right-hander Sean Burke, who has a 44.7% fly-ball rate and has allowed 1.14 home runs per nine innings to left-handed batters. The White Sox bullpen also has an xFIP of 4.42, ranking among the worst.
Teoscar Hernandez of the Los Angeles Dodgers is noted for his track record against left-handed pitchers, including a 40.8% hard-hit rate and a 45.9% fly-ball rate in that split last season. He recently hit a home run earlier in the current homestand. Hernandez will be facing southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez, who has a 4.86 SIERA and a 16.9% strikeout rate, both career-worst figures.
When considering home run props, factors such as a hitter’s recent home run rate and power profile, the opposing pitcher’s home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions, wind direction, game-time temperature, and batter-versus-pitcher handedness splits are important. For example, a +310 line on an MLB home run prop bet indicates that a $100 wager would yield $310 in profit if the player hits a home run. The implied probability for +310 odds is approximately 24%. These games are scheduled for Saturday, July 11.
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Source: sports.yahoo.com
